Tag: bubble
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Yes, Dublin property really is in a (nominal) bubble
I have written a number of times about the usefulness of the Phillips GSADF test for bubble detection. It has been used extensivly for bubble detection. google “gsadf bubble” if you dont believe me. So…
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It may not be a technical house price bubble but it sure looks like one..
so…. another CSO release of house price statistics. Recall that a bubble is where prices deviate fundamentally from their warranted levels. We know that there are massive supply constraints in the dublin region so we should see house price appreciation. But this much? The largest ever year on year percentage rise ? We are back to…
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Fundamental bubbles in Irish House prices?
So. A gallery of SupADF tests. Who doesnt like some right tailed unit roots of a saturday morning eh? I have blogged on these tests for bubbles before : see here, here, here . I leave you to make your own conclusions…
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Too late to stop a Dublin house price bubble?
And on it goes. The latest house price data from the CSO indicate the two Irelands continuing to diverge. On one hand we have Dublin (and to some extent the rest of the urban areas) growing like gangbusters, while on the other hand the stagnation intensifies in the rest of the state. This is clear…
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Bubbles in the Dublin Housing Market?
Is there a bubble in the Dublin house market? The latest figures might well give one pause for thought, with a 22% year on year increase, clearly unsustainable. However, this may not be the entire story. A newly developed statistical technique (see here and here for previous posts using it to talk about bubbles in…
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Do we really need credit side intervention in the irish housing market?
So the government plans to help new homebuyers to get houses. This will be done by the state guaranteeing mortgages of up to 95% LTV for first time buyers. Riiight… Lets see how expensive or cheap houses really are in the long term perspective… (note – this data is quite dirty on the house price…
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Earnings and House Prices In Ireland
So… House prices (defined here as all houses, national and dublin) have been rising steadily for some time now, since Q2 2012 in fact. And earnings (All sectors, average weekly wage) ? Not so much. But im sure it will be fine. Wont it?
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The Shocking Performance of Gold
Any serious investor, analyst, or commentator on precious metals has, to my mind, stressed that these are a) useful in small doses and b) a long run asset whose performance needs to be evaluated over a long run…So lets do that. There is quite enough hype about PM without hysterical “we’re doomed/Its only a flesh…