Tag: real-estate
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Is there a bubble in the UK housing market?
Recently there has been an upsurge of concern about a house price bubble in the UK. New Governor Mark Carney has made soothing noises about the existence of one. Recent developments in econometrics allow us a new test which might be able to shed some light on this; it also tantalizingly allows us the possibility…
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Strategic Mortgage Default: What does the research tell us?
What do we know about strategic (could meet obligations but choose not to ) defaulters in relation to mortgages? As I argued earlier, in the Irish case very little is known. There is a little more information for the USA, but we should be very careful about blindly or even carefully transposing US experience to…
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Will Irish Banks need further recapitalisation? If so, who will pay?
This is a version of my column in The Irish Examiner on 6 April 2013 . It was written before the talk at the Cantillon School at which the Central Bank revealed that upwards of 25b of SME loans were now impaired. That is 50% of these loans a truly astounding percentage Back in 2011 Blackrock…
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Buy to Let and other residential investments : why dont people sell?
One of the features of the Irish residential property boom and bust was the large number of people who purchased residential property for investment purposes. Figures for end 2012 suggest over 150,000 investment mortgages, accounting for some €31b. Now that the market has fallen a question that is often asked is why we do not…
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With greater transparency in prices, where now for house prices ? Have your say!
So now that we have some more transparency in the housing price area, with the publication of the property price database, where do people see the average house price going? Will greater transparency via increased volume result in prices going up or will people decide that the market is still a buyers market and bid…
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How much money will spain actually need?
As I write there are suggestions that spain will seek a banking only assistance of some €100b. Is that going to be enough? Look at the following graphs… Bear in mind a) Ireland is approx 1/8 the size of spain b) Ireland has to date spent €63b on its banking bailout. Spanish Private Sector growth…