Theres still this Irexit notion floating about, like a brown trout in the swimming pool. But look at the data below the line.
The upper limit on the cost of the banking crisis , that I have seen, is €100b. Thats from Patrick Honohan, of the Central Bank, in 2015. Most estimates put it, in gross terms, at significantly less than that, with the common figure of €60b or so being bandied about. But lets give Patrick, a far better macroeconomist than I, the figure.
The upper limit of the cost of Brexit, in a “oh shit over the edge” chaotic brexit, that I have seen, is 9% of GDP, from the EU. That, based on 2016 GDP, is a touch over €22b. Not even 1 Anglo .
Brexit, then, even in its most awful manifestation, will cost us 1/4 of the cost of the banking crisis (Honohan version)
Now, lets look at the attitudes to the EU. Here is the latest Eurobarometer. Look at the data over the Crisis. Even at the height, back in 2011-3, we didn’t fall towards thinking we would not trust, or be better off out of the EU.
So, if something that was 4x worse than Brexit didn’t cause us to want to leave the EU, would would Brexit?
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